From a technical and on-chain standpoint, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has printed not one, but numerous sell signals. As a result, investors must take prudence and limit their positive perspective, at least until the situation changes.

The Bitcoin ETF is critical to the continued surge

For some years, Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has been a speculative event. However, ETF-related innovations have recently accelerated. After losing a run of crypto lawsuits, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which approves or disapproves ETF products, has been on the defensive.

The initial run-up in Bitcoin prices began in mid-October, following the SEC’s dismissal of Grayscale’s lawsuit for transforming the GBTC product into a spot ETF offering, as well as other ETF-related news. However, because there have been no updates, BTC has been trading sideways.

In any case, the speculative Bitcoin trading frenzy will mutate to a new level in January 2024, the next critical date for ETF decision. This event will either make or break the cryptocurrency space. However, investors should be prepared for a regression before then, especially given that the Bitcoin price has been emitting multiple sell signals.

Bitcoin’s price may fall soon

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price increased by 30% between October 16 and 24, reaching a local high of $35,280. Because of the tremendous bullish momentum, this move was spectacular. However, since the formation of this swing high, BTC has been trading sideways. The daily candlestick closures have generated an upward slope since October 25, which may appear bullish to the naked eye. A closer examination of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals that it is sliding downward. This divergence is bearish and frequently results in a pullback or correction.

This is the first major sell signal that investors should be aware of.

In addition to the bearish divergence, the Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI) has flashed two sell signals. The first sell signal was posted in the shape of a red down arrow following the daily candlestick closure on October 23. The MRI showed another red down arrow nine days later. This indicator predicts one to four down candlesticks.

As a result, if things continue as they are, investors should expect to see the Bitcoin price fall. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) range, which stretches from $30,248 to $32,832, and its midpoint of $31,540, are important support levels to monitor.

On-chain metrics support the pessimistic picture

Santiment’s Network Realised Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator shows two big surges of 524 million and 542 million on October 24 and 28, indicating that investors are booking profits. When comparable profit-taking events occurred in July, along with bearish divergence, Bitcoin fell from around $31,400 to $25,800.

The Whale Transaction statistic, which has been soaring since October 23, reflects the same pessimistic perspective. A rise in this index, which measures transactions of $100,000 or more, indicates that whales are liquidating their holdings to book profits.

The 30-day Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) indicator is designed to calculate the average profit/loss of BTC investors over the last month. The MVRV is currently hovering at 10%, down from 16% on October 23. This figure implies that the average profit of investors who bought BTC in the previous month is 10%. These holders may sell in order to realise their profits, causing a sell-off.

In the last year, the 30-day MVRV has often created a local peak of 16% to 22%. As a result, this area is referred to as the “Danger Zone” because it is followed by a price correction in Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Overall, the forecast for Bitcoin price appears negative, not only from a technical standpoint but also from an on-chain standpoint. The only way to avoid these sell signals is if there is an ETF-related development.

In such a circumstance, Bitcoin’s price might break through the $35,000 barrier and head towards the psychological level of $40,000. This advance would render the bearish thesis untenable.

Below is a direct excerpt from Marty’s Bent Issue #1243: “Is Bitcoin a new form of property in the eyes of the law? Subscribe to the newsletter here.

Preston Byrne makes a strong case that Bitcoin will eventually be labeled as a new type of asset and its understanding could be different in the US and England.

This is a very interesting blog post in which Preston Byrne expands on an idea he’s been publishing since 2018: Bitcoin represents a new type of property and it will eventually be recognized by a court sometime in the future. If you’re looking for something to poke at in this bear market, your Uncle Marty thinks it’s a very stimulating exercise in trying to understand how Bitcoin is and how it probably should be viewed in the eyes of the courts.

As you can see above, Bitcoin is truly unique as a type of asset because it doesn’t actually physically exist in any one place because the ledger is kept in an extremely distributed way and it doesn’t sit. neatly into any definition of property that has yet been established. Furthermore, the nature of control over a UTXO is determined by a private key that can be signed by the person who created it, by someone who gained access to it through dishonest means, or by someone who used a very powerful computer to guess it. . When these factors come together, it’s clear—as Preston points out—that we’re dealing with a special animal.

I’m not really sure how things like taxes will change if and when a court in the US or England sets a precedent that marks Bitcoin as a new type of asset, but I’m inclined to agree that it makes sense for Bitcoin to set a new precedent. Never before has humanity interacted with an asset of this type. Treating it the same as real estate, precious metals, or other types of physical assets never made intuitive sense to me. To be clear, I think this is a positive thing for Bitcoin. The fact that UTXOs don’t really exist in one place, but in a globally distributed ledger, and that you can store private keys in your head has always led me to believe that Bitcoin is simply information – specifically, speech.

If bitcoin is labeled as speech that is not performed in any particular place but everywhere at once, I think that could reduce the ease with which any individual court within a relatively fair legal system in any particular jurisdiction could try to declare bitcoin for taxable within its borders. . Defining this new type of property as something owned by someone but not in a specific location greatly increases plausible deniability, making it much more difficult to enforce local laws on bitcoin owners.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit a quick six-week high by July 29 as the fallout from the latest macro development boosted risk assets.

BTC/USD 1 Hour Candlestick Chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
A monthly closing could seal 20% profits
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured local highs of $24,445 for BTC/USD on Bitstamp, the best since the week beginning June 13.

After consolidating around $23,000, bulls got a second wind to push the market higher on the back of the latest US Federal Reserve rate hike and GDP data confirming the US is now in recession.

Risk assets outperformed overall, with bitcoin and altcoins joining gold to give traders and analysts reason for a positive outlook.

Gold #GOLD $GLD $GC_F held the bottom of the 23-month rectangle (yellow), which will serve as a handle for the massive C&H. The bull market has begun. Prices are heading north. The goal aimed for $3,000 over the next few years.

“This is getting interesting,” chain monitor Material Indicators tweeted in an update to its short and long signal thread for the June 28 BTC/USD daily chart. He observed the potential for Bitcoin to reach a higher high (HH). next:

“All trend spotting signals are printed on the Long D chart, plus the 21-DMA and 50-DMA unwinds. If BTC can form a HH, there will be a small friction to the next HH and then the macro channel will go into the YES range, it is still a bear market rally.”

Material Indicators added that $25,000 would also be a key price level to watch if the higher high at $24,300 holds for the day’s close.

“If this rally can get past $25,000 then $28,000 will take center stage very quickly,” read part of another post.

“The parabolic downtrend from ATH has been broken,” Blockware Chief Analyst William Clemente, meanwhile, summed up in a skewed alternative view of BTC’s current price performance in 2022.

From the same point last week, BTC/USD is up a modest 4% at the time of writing. With two days left until July’s weekly close, the pair was on track to close out monthly gains of over 20%, data from Coinglass confirmed.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass
Key support ETH eyes regained above $1,700
Altcoins were similarly rosy on the day as Ether (ETH) breached $1,700 to challenge the highs of the week dating back to June 6.

Related: 3 Bitcoin Trading Behaviors Suggest BTC’s Return to $24,000 Is a ‘Fakeout’

Does it scare you or get you very, very excited? #ETH

While Material Indicators toyed with the idea of another retracement and a lower low well below $1,000, others acknowledged the strength of short-term price action across altcoins.

“$ETH, like many altcoins, successfully retested old resistances to new supports and has rebounded strongly since then,” commented popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.

Strong rebound from $ETH after successful retest

ETH is slowly approaching the next immediate resistance (upper orange box)

ETH would need to regain the bottom of this box as support if it is to move higher #ETH #Crypto #Ethereum

Additional analysis called for ETH/USD to reclaim the support zone starting around $1,730 for a continuation.

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading step involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrencies have been hit hard by fears that interest rate hikes will end the era of cheap money, with the world’s biggest digital asset, bitcoin, down more than 56% from this year’s high. Several crypto companies have filed for bankruptcy or been forced to seek emergency capital infusions.

Singaporean crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy on July 1. Once a formidable player in the digital asset space, 3AC’s downfall appeared to stem from the firm’s bet on the Terra ecosystem, which was behind it. terraUSD stablecoin failed. The token lost almost all of its value in May, draining nearly half a trillion dollars from the crypto market.

The highly leveraged 3AC was unable to meet calls for additional payment from the counterparties it borrowed from. As a result, crypto lenders BlockFi and Genesis Trading liquidated their positions in the firm. According to court filings, 3AC’s creditors say they are owed more than $2.8 billion.

CELSIUS NETWORK New Jersey-based crypto lender Celsius suspended withdrawals on June 12 and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy a month later, listing a $1.19 billion deficit on its balance sheet. It was valued at $3.25 billion in an October funding round. Celsius encountered complex investments in the wholesale digital asset market.

The company lured retail investors by promising annual returns of up to 18.6%, but struggled to meet redemptions as cryptocurrency prices fell. In its first bankruptcy filing, lawyers for Celsius said bitcoin mining could provide the company with a way to repay customers. Meanwhile, several state regulators are investigating Celsius’ decision to suspend customer selection, Reuters reported.

Crypto lender Voyager Digital, also based in New Jersey, has been a rising crypto star, reaching a market capitalization of $3.74 billion last year. But the collapse of 3AC dealt a major blow to Voyager, which was heavily exposed to the hedge fund. Voyager filed claims of more than $650 million against 3AC.

Voyager filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on July 6 and announced that it has $110 million in cash and crypto assets. Since then, the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corp has confirmed that it is investigating Voyager’s marketing of deposit accounts for cryptocurrency purchases that the company advertised as FDIC insured.

Crypto exchange FTX and Alameda Research, both founded by billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, offered to buy all of Voyager’s digital assets and loans, with the exception of 3AC’s loans, and allowed Voyager customers to withdraw their assets from the FTX account. Voyager, however, dismissed the offer as a “low price offer” in a court filing.

Singaporean crypto lender Vauld filed for protection from its creditors in a Singapore court on July 8 after suspending withdrawals a few days ago. The company owes its creditors $402 million, The Block reports. Vauld is backed by billionaire investor Peter Thiel’s Valar Ventures, Pantera Capital and Coinbase Ventures. In a July 11 blog post, Vauld said it is discussing a possible sale to London-based crypto lender Nexo while exploring potential restructuring options.

Faced with a surge in withdrawals and a hit from 3AC, crypto lender BlockFi signed an agreement with FTX on July 1 that provides BlockFi with a $400 million revolving credit facility and includes an option that allows FTX to buy the company for up to $240 million.

BlockFi was hit hard by the cryptocurrency crash and implemented several cost-cutting measures in June, including cutting staff by 20% and reducing executive compensation. The company was valued at $3 billion in a funding round last year.